Volcanic eruptions lower capacity to make near-term climate predictions
Large volcanic eruptions linked to global cooling are not accurately represented in climate models, leading to inaccurate near-term predictions, a new study published in Science Advances showed.
Large volcanic eruptions release sulphur gases, which combine with other gases in the atmosphere to form aerosols, known to scatter solar radiation and reflect it into space.
The expectation is that volcanic eruptions could predict how climate evolves post-eruption from seasons to decades, Xian Wu, a postdoctoral research associate at the National Oceanic
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But the role of volcanic eruptions in predicting near-time climate over annual to decadal timescales “has not been extensively explored and remains unclear, except for a few case studies”, she added.
The study focused on multiyear-to-decadal variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, beyond the yearly fluctuations associated with El Nino and La Nina events, Wu noted..
“Specifically, we focus on predicting whether the tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures will be warmer or colder than normal over the next 5-10 years,” she highlighted
Near-term climate prediction, according to the expert, bridges the gap between existing seasonal forecasts and centennial (over 100 years timescale) climate projections.
This field has grown rapidly over the last decade, driven by high demand from stakeholders and policymakers.s.
Wu and her colleagues tested the model’s ability to make past predictions from 1954-2015. They then compared the model simulations with ground reality.